A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
