Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
